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In order to look forward to the future of the U.S. economy and the stock market in the second half of the year, Barron weekly asked six strategists. Whether the U.S. economy continues to pick up speed and grow, or stumble until the end of the year, strategists are on the opposite side: the S & P 500 will be able to swing within a narrow range in the 2020 surplus. With a lot of unknowns coming out, things will get more interesting from then on.

The United States added 4.8 million new jobs in June, exceeding expectations, but nearly 20 million Americans were still unemployed.

The employment announcement in June ended the first half of the year in a tone of reverse harmony. In this unyielding year, this kind of inverse harmonic tone is so familiar. The outbreak of new coronavirus pulmonary fever has made 2.6 million Americans sick, more than 128000 people died, and made a large part of the U.S. economy stagnated and fell into decline. The S & P 500 index once fell 34% and entered the bear market.

Then, before the economic data was the first to support the stock market, the S & P 500 index returned to the bull market and is now close to pre epidemic levels.

Still, the economy is far from normal, and it will take a long time to absorb the millions of idle workers. They will drive down consumer spending, affect corporate profits, and put further pressure on major state and local budgets. More importantly, the threat of the virus still exists, casting a shadow over the economy and the market.

At least in terms of the economy and the market, the main topic of conversation in recent months has been a quarrel about the state of recovery. Some people think that the exhibition is V-shaped, while others think it is U-shaped or W-shaped. Some have become more creative, anticipating that the economic recovery will be similar to the shape of the Nike logo, or the inverted square root symbol.

At the beginning of the second half of 2020, we increasingly believe that the economy will show a V-shaped recovery, as blockade policies in many parts of the United States are relaxed faster than expected. At the same time, despite the epidemic situation, consumers have shown a willingness to return to normal.

But these improvements come at a cost. The number of epidemic cases is increasing the number of Liuhe Tibetan treasure, King Zhongwang and Mazhong, prompting enterprises and states to postpone or cancel the economic restart plan, and make consumers feel solemn again. The development of the epidemic and the correct response measures will determine the direction of the U.S. economy in the second half of 2020 and beyond.

David Kelly, chief global strategist, JPMorgan asset management Although the employment campaign in May and June showed the recovery from the most important measures of the epidemic situation, investors should realize that Liuhe hidden treasure, King Zhongwang and Mazhong, is still a long way from a healthy job market Wang Yima ZHONGTE, and the recent outbreak will make further recovery more slow.

In order to look forward to the future of the U.S. economy and the stock market in the second half of the year, Barron weekly asked six strategists. That's what they said.

AI Bu duya's expectation: US stocks may adjust

again

In the background of slow recovery, people easily become sad and not elegant. Although the economic data of the previous month rose unexpectedly, the data of Liuhe hidden treasure, King Zhongwang and mazhongte of Liuhe, recovered earlier than expected, and was stronger than expected; however, the data of Liuhe hidden treasure, King Zhongwang and mazhongte, was lagging behind. As the number of infected people rose first again, and the restart measures were withdrawn, even the employment data in June had lagged behind.

At the end of June, the Six Harmonies treasure king tutma, King Zhongwang Mazhong, Arizona, California, Georgia and Texas all reported record daily new cases. Many counties in California have closed bars and indoor restaurants once again, and New York City has announced that it will delay the reopening of indoor restaurants.

In addition to the magnitude of the uncertainty surrounding the virus, and the timing and efficacy of the vaccine - there are a host of other related unknowns.

Will private schools and day care centers bloom in autumn? Still working parents still need to take care of their children? Will Congress delay the enhanced version of the dole that will expire on July 31? The handout helped to fill the gap in household income and spending. Given the loss of tax revenue, will state and local authorities get more support to fill the budget gap? Of course,六合藏宝图特马王中王一马中特 there is the presidential election in November.

Brian singer, head of dynamic asset allocation strategy for William Blair, said the disparate uncertainty faced by consumers and investors could dampen economic movements and put pressure on the stock market in the surplus time of 2020.

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According to the daily data from opportunity insights, an organization affiliated to Harvard University, since the economic restart, the income of young enterprises has not improved too much, while the number of young enterprises in operation is 16% lower than that in January. At this time, we can reasonably assume that a large number of foreign enterprises have been closed for a long time.

What ailuduya is expected to show is that the widespread use of the new coronavirus pulmonary fever vaccine will be delayed until 2022, and the blocking measures of rigal integration will curb the trend of the epidemic accelerating in the autumn of 2020, strategists said. It can be followed by a more major economic contraction and another stock market adjustment that can be shown.

Following the gloomy scenario of Morgan Stanley's outlook, the US GDP outlook for 2020 will be shortened by 10.2%. Oxford economics' outlook for a 17.2% reduction. Meanwhile, Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at cornerstone macro, expects the S & P 500 to fall 20% in the worst case.

That means about 2500 points, and it will make the defense, utilities and essential consumables sectors more attractive, while the non essential consumables and industry sectors will lose their appeal, he said. Katerina Simonetti, senior compliance manager at UBS's youwo wealth management group, speculates that if consensus tends to be negative, the S & P 500's outlook will fall to 2800 by the end of 2020.

Benchmark expectation: corporate earnings are the first to improve before the end of the year

We don't want to be too sad now. The strategists who approved the interview with Barron weekly also don't think the sad situation is sure to unfold. Cantrowitz, for example, thinks that the probability of his benchmark expected scenario to unfold is 50%, and that of the smiley and sad scenarios is 25%.

The benchmark expectations across Wall Street have some common assumptions. First, Americans will have to live with the new coronavirus for a long time. Second, the Fed will continue to do its best to support the economy and financial markets. Third, Congress will pass an additional program of solidarity with families and businesses, totaling at least $1 trillion.

In her baseline expectation, Simonetti believes that the blockade control measures will gradually be eliminated as the vaccine or therapeutic drug is available before the autumn and produced around the middle of 2021. Adding these factors together, the economy will continue to revive in the third quarter of 2020 and return to normal activity before the end of the first half of 2021.

In response, she expects the S & P 500's surplus to improve by the end of 2020, helping the index reach its current 3300 level.

Cantrowitz said that one of the most likely scenarios is the stock market's sideways vibration. As the diplomatic alienation measures are still strict, the economic restart also goes on and off. The unemployment rate will remain in double digits until the end of December. With the virus still hanging around and the first economic movement from the end of April to revive sharply, the economic data looks less impressive for the first time.

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He's not the only one who thinks so. Lisa shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley wealth management, forecasts that the S & P 500 will swing between 2900 and 3200 in 2020. She informed clients that the index was highly valued, crowded, and increasingly clustered with a few tech companies in its infancy.

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Instead of looking at the standard & Poor's 500 index, Mr. Slater prefers financial, raw materials and energy stocks, which are more beneficial than the broader market, are more vulnerable to economic recovery, and are positively related to rising inflation. (strategists, on the contrary, believe that for at least two quarters of the next day - some say longer - inflation will remain calm and then rise first. )

At the same time, based on the benchmark expectations for the second half of the year, cantrowitz sees industrial and non essential consumption stocks, and believes that growth stocks will continue to outperform value stocks. Simonetti looked at the middle cap stocks in Telecom, healthcare and food sectors.

Expectation: the S & P 500 stands at 3500?

Although we are not too sad, but now is an opportunity for the public to control their emotions. Their expectation for the economy and the stock market is that the worst is over. The rise in the first states to restart the economy, and the consequent rethinking of the restart, are raising doubts about whether the scenario can be achieved.

Strategists said that to achieve this, it is necessary to have a vaccine in 202 ,


posted @ posted @ 20-07-20 11:18  admin  阅读量: